By Egypt’s recent announcement of its largest-ever wheat order, totaling 3.8 million tonnes, has set the stage for intensified competition in the global wheat market.
As negotiations with Russian suppliers begin, this development underscores a shift from traditional European suppliers to Russia and other exporters.
This trend has been growing since Russia became the world’s leading wheat exporter in 2015, a position strengthened by its response to EU sanctions over Crimea.
EU faces declining wheat exports
The EU’s wheat export market is facing significant challenges.
Traditional buyers like Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia are turning to Russian and US suppliers, drawn by competitive pricing and assured volumes.
As a result, EU soft wheat exports are set to fall from an average of 35 million tonnes to 26 million tonnes, a sharp decline of 9 million tonnes.
France, the EU’s largest wheat exporter, has particularly felt this impact due to a poor harvest this year.
Meanwhile, Russia’s expansion in the wheat market is most evident in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where it has overtaken France as the primary supplier to Algeria.
This shift is partly due to the diplomatic conflict between Paris and Algiers over the Western Sahara and is indicative of a broader trend of countries seeking stable and affordable suppliers.
Russia, with its capacity to provide large volumes at competitive prices, is becoming a preferred supplier for many nations in the region.
Adding to the latest development, several African nations, including Ghana, Nigeria, and Ivory Coast, have suspended their cereal exports.
This decision is further boosting demand for imported wheat in the region.
The three Maghreb states of Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia alone purchased 19.5 million tonnes of wheat from foreign suppliers this year, compared to 17.1 million tonnes last year.
As local production falters, these countries are increasingly reliant on imports, creating opportunities for major exporters like Russia and the US.
Russia’s wheat production remains strong
Russia is set to export 43 million tonnes of wheat this year, despite a slight decline from the 56 million tonnes exported in 2023.
With its third-best harvest in the last five years, producing 82 million tonnes, Russia is well-positioned to maintain its dominance in the global wheat market.
A weak rouble further favors Russian wheat exports, enabling the country to offer competitive prices, thereby attracting more buyers and gaining further market share.
The growing dominance of Russian wheat in traditional European markets is a wake-up call for the EU.
The region needs “more aggressive agricultural diplomacy” to counter Russia’s influence, experts suggest.
Decision-makers must be aware of the importance of maintaining and strengthening European trade flows to ensure the EU’s credibility against Russia’s increasing market share.
In a world where wheat has become a strategic commodity, the EU’s ability to secure its export markets will be crucial for its agricultural sector’s future.
As global wheat dynamics continue to evolve, Russia’s “Russification” of the world market appears set to intensify.
Countries in the MENA region and Africa are looking for stable suppliers who can offer volume and price guarantees that align with their economic capacities.
With Russia’s agricultural strategy deeply intertwined with its geopolitical aims, European producers face the dual challenge of declining volumes and falling prices.
Without a concerted effort to bolster its export presence, the EU risks losing even more ground to Russia in the competitive global wheat market.
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