By Americans can look forward to more affordable Thanksgiving meals this year as grocery bills for the traditional feast have dropped for the second consecutive year.
According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, the average cost of a “classic” Thanksgiving meal for 10 people is $58.08 in 2024, a 5% decrease from 2023 and a 9% drop from 2022’s record high of $64.05.
This price includes staples like turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, peas, cranberries, and pumpkin pie essentials.
The broader decline in grocery costs aligns with a nationwide slowdown in food inflation.
During the pandemic, food prices surged faster than at any time since 1979, peaking in 2022.
However, inflationary pressures began to ease in 2023, and the trend has continued into 2024.
The USDA attributes this decline to reduced wholesale food prices and stabilizing energy costs, which have helped bring some relief to households.
Even so, nearly half of Americans hosting Thanksgiving this year remain concerned about the cost of the event, according to a Deloitte survey.
Households opting to add extras such as ham, russet potatoes, and green beans would see their bill rise to $77.34, still an 8% reduction from last year.
While the declines offer relief, costs remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels.
“Declines don’t really erase the dramatic increases we had,” said Bernt Nelson, an economist with the Farm Bureau, noting that the average meal is still 19% pricier than in 2019.
Turkey prices: A curious decline amid lower supply
The most significant price relief comes from turkey, a centerpiece of Thanksgiving meals.
Despite a drop in turkey production to its lowest level since 1985, the national average cost of a 16-pound bird fell by 6% to $25.67.
Overall, turkey prices are down about 4% year-over-year, according to the consumer price index.
“This year, turkey has been a curious item,” Bernt Nelson, a Farm Bureau economist, said in a CNBC report.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that 205 million turkeys were raised in 2024, a 6% decline attributed to the ongoing impact of avian influenza, which has decimated poultry populations since 2022.
Ordinarily, reduced supply would drive prices higher, but waning consumer demand offset the potential spike.
However, per capita turkey consumption has dropped by about a pound this year, contributing to the overall price decline.
“Turkey price movements had the biggest impact on the overall cost of a Thanksgiving meal this year,” Nelson noted, given that the bird typically accounts for 44% of the total grocery bill.
Processed foods buck the trend
While turkey and milk prices fell, processed foods like dinner rolls and cubed stuffing have become more expensive.
These items saw price increases exceeding 8% in 2024, driven by rising labor costs and other non-food-related inflationary pressures throughout the food supply chain.
According to the Farm Bureau, these increases highlight the lingering effects of pandemic-era disruptions.
During the pandemic, food prices surged due to supply chain challenges, labor shortages, and external factors such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which drove up energy costs.
“Higher energy prices have a ripple effect, increasing costs across the supply chain,” said Nelson.
Although inflationary pressures have eased since 2022, labor costs remain a challenge for food producers.
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