By New and more expansive US sanctions against Russia are likely to significantly disrupt oil supplies, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.
The IEA said in its monthly Oil Market Report:
Washington targeted two major oil producers (Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz), over 160 tankers carrying oil for Russia, Iran and Venezuela and ship insurance providers, further complicating oil trade logistics for those countries.
On Friday, the US imposed further sanctions on the shadow fleet of Russia, carrying oil to other countries.
Oil prices had climbed to multi-month highs earlier this week as fears of disruptions in supply increased.
More sanctions to follow under Trump?
IEA said there is a higher probability of the incoming Donald Trump presidency imposing tougher sanctions on Iran’s oil exports.
On December 19, the US expanded sanctions on vessels transporting Iranian crude.
“The new sanctions on Iran’s shadow fleet now cover vessels that transported an average of over 500 kb/d of Iranian crude in 2024, nearly one-third of the country’s crude exports,” the Paris-based energy watchdog said.
While it is too early to fully quantify the potential impact from these new measures, some operators have reportedly already started to pull back from Iranian and Russian oil.
Global oil supply expected to rise
The IEA said Russian oil exports eased by 40,000 barrels per day to 7.33 million barrels a day in December.
Exports declined as a 250,000 barrels a day drop in crude oil shipments was mostly offset by higher product loadings, the agency said.
Meanwhile, global oil supply is expected to rise by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 to about 104.7 million barrels a day, the agency said.
In 2024, the oil supply worldwide had witnessed a much smaller growth of 660,000 barrels per day.
Non-OPEC+ production is set to rise by 1.5 mb/d in both 2024 and 2025, to 53.1 mb/d and 54.6 mb/d, respectively.
In December, world oil supply rose by 20,000 barrels per day compared with the previous month to 103.5 million barrels a day.
Supply was 390,000 barrels per day higher on a year-on-year basis as increased output from African members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries more than offset seasonal declines in non-OPEC+ production, IEA said.
Global oil demand to grow in 2025
“Average heating degree days (in December) were significantly higher than a year ago and slightly above the five-year average, boosting oil demand,” IEA said.
The agency has raised its estimate for oil demand growth in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries for the October-December 2024 period by 250,000 barrels per day.
“Oil demand trends in non-OECD economies were mixed. While China posted modest y-o-y growth in November, the latest data for Saudi Arabia, Brazil and India were all below expectations,” it said.
The agency now forecasts oil demand to grow by 1.05 million barrels per day in 2025.
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