By Russia has continued to send cargoes of crude oil to India on tankers that have been sanctioned by the US, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.
This situation presents a crucial test of Moscow’s ability to circumvent the stringent sanctions implemented by Washington earlier this month.
Three shipments of heavily sanctioned Arctic oil and at least two cargoes from Sakhalin Island are currently being transported to India on tankers that were designated by the US Treasury on January 10, according to the Bloomberg report.
The Arctic oil shipments are headed to ports in South Asia, while the Sakhalin Island cargoes spent time on US-listed vessels in the Pacific before making their way to India.
India has stated that sanctioned tankers that loaded before January 10 will be allowed into its ports only if they arrive before February 27.
However, all five shipments picked up their cargo after January 10.
Risk of supply deficit
Moscow’s ability to maintain oil output levels will be dictated by its success in circumventing US sanctions and continuing the flow of barrels.
The global oil market could face a deficit this year if Russia fails to work around these sanctions, as this would undermine the expectation of a small surplus.
Bloomberg observed shipments and calculated a four-week rolling average, which showed little change in the seven days ending January 26.
This indicates that Russia’s oil flows have not decreased since the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed measures.
However, it’s important to note that shipment levels are relatively low compared to historical standards.
In the week leading up to January 26, daily crude flows saw an 11% increase, reaching 3.07 million barrels – approximately 320,000 more barrels than the previous week, Bloomberg reported.
The less volatile four-week average flow also rose slightly from the previous week’s revised number, reaching 2.96 million barrels per day, according to the report.
Despite these increases, the first four weeks of 2025 saw crude shipments averaging 290,000 barrels per day lower than the 2024 average–a 9% decrease.
The increase in shipments from Pacific and Arctic terminals more than compensated for the decline in flows from the country’s Baltic ports, Bloomberg said.
Ust-Luga, a smaller Baltic port, continues to experience depressed exports following an unexpected slump in late December.
Shipments from the larger Primorsk terminal also decreased, reversing the previous week’s increase.
Three sanctioned tankers departed the Arctic port of Murmansk
Shipping data seen by Bloomberg revealed that three sanctioned tankers departed the Arctic port of Murmansk during the week ending January 26, en route to the Suez Canal.
Their final destinations are ports in India, with estimated arrival times in the latter half of February.
Gazprom Neft, which was also blacklisted, pumped the ships’ cargoes onto sanctioned shuttle tankers.
These tankers then transported the cargo to a sanctioned floating storage unit located at the port, according to the report.
Several shipments of Russia’s Sokol crude, handled by sanctioned ships, appear to be making their way toward India as well.
The sanctioned vessels Pavel Chernysh and Viktor Konetsky both initially listed Sikka, India as their destination after loading.
The Viktor Konetsky later transferred its cargo to an unsanctioned vessel off the Russian port of Nakhodka.
This unsanctioned vessel has not yet signaled a destination or moved far from the port.
Meanwhile, the Pavel Chernysh has been idling for a week off Yeosu in South Korea, a known location for Russian crude ship-to-ship transfers.
The month-long journey from Russia’s Arctic and Pacific ports to India provides ample time for the sanctions situation to be resolved, Bloomberg said in the report.
Processors in India remain optimistic that the new US administration may soften the impact of the sanctions imposed in the final days of the Biden presidency.
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